Atualidades para o CACD: Política monetária (ECB)

Leitura primordial de atualidades para o CACD: ECB to halt expansion of €2.6tn stimulus programme

Cacdistas, hoje o tema de notícias para o cacd fala sobre política monetária (convencional e não convencional). Ou seja, atualidade fundamental de estudo, afinal este assunto é recorrente em questões na prova de Economia do CACD. No caso desta notícia, especificamente, pode-se incluí-la dentro dos tópicos do edital do concurso apresentados abaixo:

• 2.6 Política Monetária.
• 2.6.4 Política Monetária Não-Convencional.

Sobretudo, em tempos em que as expectativas dos agentes econômicos ganham cada vez mais espaço nas discussões diplomáticas e por extensão na prova.

Abaixo segue uma notícia, do Financial Times, fundamental de leitura sobre este assunto. Confira a seguir:

“ECB to halt expansion of €2.6tn stimulus programme

End of extra bond purchases shifts investor focus to timing of interest rate rises

Mario Draghi has joined most of the world’s other big central bankers in halting crisis-era stimulus programmes, announcing on Thursday that the European Central Bank would call time on its own €2.6tn bond-buying scheme. The decision, reached unanimously by the ECB governing council, ends nearly four years of monthly purchases of new government and corporate bonds in the eurozone.

Mr Draghi credited the policy with occasionally being “the only driver of this recovery”.

Although the ECB has long signalled it would end new purchases this month, the move marked an important milestone for the eurozone, which will now be left to manage its economy with more traditional tools such as interest rate changes. The monetary experiment, launched as the EU’s common currency area struggled to emerge from the damage wrought by a three-year debt crisis, kept borrowing costs ultra-low to prompt European governments and companies to raise cash for new investment. Although advocates believe the programme helped drive a robust post-crisis recovery, Mr Draghi is ending new bond purchases at a time when eurozone growth is faltering. He acknowledged risks were “moving to the downside” because of trade tensions, geopolitical turbulence and volatility in financial markets.

After an exceptionally strong 2017, when the eurozone grew at its fastest rate since the financial crisis, growth fell to a four-year low of 0.2 per cent in the third quarter. The decision also comes as other major central banks are reconsidering their enthusiasm for ending easy money polices. The US Federal Reserve, which has been steadily raising interest rates for two years, has sent strong signals it may need to slow down after another rate rise this month. And the Bank of England remains in a holding pattern after raising rates twice in the past year, amid fears Britain’s exit from the EU could dent growth.

Addressing investor concerns over an abrupt end, the ECB said it would continue to reinvest the proceeds of bonds that are now maturing. For the first time, the bank linked that intention to its own interest rate decisions, saying reinvestments would continue well beyond the point where it starts to raise its rates.

The euro fell 0.3 per cent against the US dollar in the aftermath of the ECB decision before paring some of its losses to finish the European trading day only slightly lower at $1.136.

The bond-buying programme has been controversial in Germany and other northern eurozone countries. They have argued that the extended period of cheap money creates asset bubbles. But the unanimous decision was a boon to Mr Draghi; he is set to step down next October, and any sign of splits within the council could have provoked market jitters on just how committed the ECB is to keeping other aspects of its crisis-era stimulus in place. Interest rates have been on hold since March 2016 and are not expected to rise until late next year. The bank’s main interest rate remains at zero.

The ECB started its bond purchases much later than its counterparts in the US and the UK — in large part because of tensions between the northern member states and their more indebted southern counterparts. Mr Draghi acknowledged that economic data had been “weaker than expected” but said the domestic economy would continue to “underpin the economic expansion”. He said the governing council’s mood was one of “continuing confidence” in the eurozone’s economy but “with increasing caution” on the outlook. The bank is relying on the strength of the labour market to boost spending and compensate for the drop in export sales. It also said risks to the outlook were “broadly balanced” — an assessment out of sync with that of most economists.

“If the ECB was to do an objective assessment of what’s changed in the economy since June, they would extend asset purchases,” said Ken Wattret, economist at IHS Markit, a data group. “Underlying inflation is still not really picking up, [and] there is a genuine concern that the lack of ammunition in the eurozone could be an issue in the future.” The ECB targets inflation of slightly less than 2 per cent. The bank has said it expects to keep interest rates on hold “at least through the summer of 2019”.

The ECB’s decision to stop expanding QE had been widely flagged and monthly bond purchases had already fallen from €30bn to €15bn after September.”